Hamas Attacks on Southern Israel: Reactions from Lebanon

By Karim El Mufti
Professor of Political Science and International Law

Science Po Paris & Saint-Joseph University in Beirut

European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed)

November 2023

On 7 October 2023, the Palestinian armed group Hamas – acronym in Arabic for ‘Movement of Islamic Resistance’ – attacked the outskirts of Gaza inside the Israeli southern territory, killing more than a thousand Israelis, between military personnel – inside targeted barracks – and civilians in several kibbutz and other neighbouring towns. This offensive has shaken Israel to the core and led to a massive military retaliation against the Palestinian population inside the Gaza strip, causing unspeakable losses of lives and suffering, with more than 10,000 casualties killed so far, among whom half are children.
This tragic escalation of violence between Hamas and Israel brought direct implications to the Lebanese context, which constitutes a standing front between the Lebanese militia Hezbollah and Israel, as the two countries are still officially at war. Since the July-August War of 2006, the Lebanese-Israeli conflict was punctuated by balanced rules of engagement, with regular clashes and skirmishes between the two sides.

The day after the Hamas attacks, the Lebanese front reignited with shelling occurring from and into the two countries, leading to casualties. Fears started to rise in Lebanon as to the possible extension of the conflict engulfing the country into a new round of destruction as in 2006. Lebanon and its population are already extremely vulnerable as its economic situation has been crumbling since October 2019, due to a historic multidimensional crisis, coupled with acute institutional paralysis.

Since October 2022, the country is undergoing once again a dangerous void among its key political institutions, as Lebanese parliamentarians were unable to elect a new President of the Republic. The Cabinet is handled by a caretaker government and the Parliament is unable to enact legislation until the issue of the election of the country’s president is addressed.

Full paper here

Les ambitions régionales du Hezbollah aux prises avec les sables mouvants du gouffre libanais

 

Karim El Mufti, Professeur de sciences politiques et relations internationales, intervenant à Sciences Po Paris et l’Université Saint-Joseph de Beyrouth.

Orients Stratégiques, num.15, Décembre 2023.

 

Si le Hezbollah a su se constituer comme véritable fer de lance de "l'axe de la résistance", c'est à l'aune d'impressionnantes percées géopolitiques qui ont jalonné les 20 dernières années. Ajoutons à cela le résultat des manœuvres à succès au sein du contexte libanais qui lui ont permis de se dégager une réelle liberté de mouve¬ment et de décision sur les questions de guerre et de paix.

Fort de ses succès régionaux, le Hezbollah est devenu trop puissant pour qu'il puisse se voir dicter une remise sur le tapis de la question de son désarmement, ou être confronté au sein des institutions politiques, au sein desquelles il s'est octroyé une réelle "vétocratie".

Le "parti de dieu" doit manœuvrer très délicatement, sachant pertinemment que si le pays sombre complètement, il risque de sombrer avec lui.

L'article complet à acquérir ici.